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Manchester's economy could lose £21bn over the next twelve
years if it fails to re-tool its workforce to take advantage
of the impending shift to a low carbon economy, according
to a new report - 'Mini Stern' assessment of the likely
impact of climate change on the city.
Rashid Bashir, author of the Deloitte
report which set out to analyse how the city could take advantage
of the shift to a low carbon economy, said there is potential
for the area to become the "silicon valley" of the new sustainable
economy.
"By 2030, the sustainable economy will be thriving" - he
said. "If the area doesn't create the right conditions for
small businesses to thrive, then they will move elsewhere."
By creating the right conditions for new and emerging businesses
the area would have a chance to become a global focus for
investment, he added.
The report argued that, as well as fostering conditions for
innovative businesses, the city must work to ensure the impact
of new environmental legislation is as small as possible on
the rest of the economy.
Climate change legislation is set to tax high energy industries
such as manufacturing and transport most heavily, but will
also affect other businesses as customer focus on companies'
environmental credentials grows and businesses look to take
advantage of emissions trading schemes, it predicted.
The city would do well to focus attention on its relatively
low carbon financial and professional services sector, as
well as leading the drive to green procurement and sourcing
through the public sector which accounts for a quarter of
the city's workforce, the report advised.
The region should also be aware of the economic risks associated
with the airline industry being included in the EU Emissions
Trading Scheme (ETS), according to Bashir. "The aviation industry
is one of the key drivers for the region" - he said. "If it
is restricted without careful consideration of how the economy
can adapt, the affect could be disastrous."
As well as fostering conditions for businesses to take advantage
of eco-innovation opportunities and encouraging businesses
to reduce their emissions, the report recommended that Manchester
put in place a scheme to re-skill the workforce, establish
targets for renewable energy use in local areas and invest
in the transport infrastructure to improve its efficiency.
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