| Nearly 18 million British people
will experience more water shortages and 160,000 will be affected
by coastal flooding by the end of the century if temperatures
are left unchecked, according to new Met Office analysis.
However, new projections of likely rainfall, soil moisture
and evaporation suggest that farmers from Cornwall to the
north of Scotland should benefit from warmer temperatures,
longer growing seasons and fewer frosts that can be expected
with climate change, says the
report.
The data, which was launched at the UN climate talks in Durban,
shows that all 24 countries included in the report have warmed
since the 1960s and the frequency of extremely warm temperatures
has increased, while very cold temperatures have become less
frequent.
The authors stressed it was not possible to be confident
about future rainfall patterns in Britain, but they noted
there had been 35 more "unusually warm" days per year in the
past decade than in the 1960s.
The latest warning on the impacts of climate change comes
in the wake of one of the driest years on record in some parts
of Britain. South and south-east England, which are already
facing pressure on water resources, are likely to see an increase
in the frequency of droughts and water scarcity, the report
says.
In the worst-case scenario painted in the report, food production
could decline dramatically in parts of Brazil, China, Egypt,
India, Russia, Turkey and the US. Increases in crop yields
could be expected in Japan, Germany and other northern latitudes.
The report is significant because it applies consistent data
to all 24 countries for the first time.
The new analysis suggests climate change could be worse than
previously thought in many developing countries. By the end
of the century, it says, about 49 million more people - mostly
in Bangladesh, China, India and Egypt - could be at risk from
coastal flooding due to sea level rises.
"Life for millions of people could change for ever. This
makes the challenge of reducing emissions ever more urgent,"
said the UK climate and energy secretary, Chris Huhne.
Keith Allott, head of climate change at WWF UK, said - "It
is clear that the UK can expect significant disruption to
its water, transport and other critical infrastructure. But
we also need to remember that developing countries will be
much harder hit by climate change with devastating threats
to their food and water security."
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