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Any boost to renewable energy sparked by countries abandoning
nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima disaster is likely
to be overshadowed by a massive increase in coal use that
could have devastating consequences for the fight against
climate change.
That was the stark message delivered at the World
Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi by Fatih Birol,
chief economist at the International Energy Agency (IEA),
who warned that those countries now committed to phasing out
nuclear power are likely to see greenhouse gas emissions rise
in the short to medium-term.
Germany has already put plans in place to phase out
nuclear power by 2022, with Switzerland following suit.
Meanwhile, countries such as Japan, France and China
have scaled back programmes for new reactors since the
disaster.
Birol said that the intention to replace nuclear with renewables
was bold, but warned that, in reality, countries were likely
to increase production of coal-derived electricity to pick
up the slack.
"We will see higher CO2 levels if we
take out one of the major technologies that will help us deal
with climate change," he said, adding that the IEA forecast
emissions would be 6.2 per cent higher by 2035 as a result
of the policy changes.
He said that the world was on track to see an increase in
coal demand twice the size of Australia's current steam coal
exports and a rise in natural gas requirements equivalent
to two-thirds of Russia's current net gas exports.
Speaking just a day after warning that the growth of the
renewable energy sector could slow over the next few years
as a result of austerity measures around the globe, Birol
said that half the growth in global energy use over the last
decade came from coal.
He also reissued the long-standing IEA call for the phasing
out of the $409bn subsidies given to fossil fuel industries
each year. "To say we want renewables - but then, on the other
hand, give fossil fuels subsidies - doesn't work," Birol told
delegates. "It's like you go for a run and then have a big
lunch of junk food."
Birol also took issue with the argument that fossil fuel
subsidies ensure poorer people have access to energy.
"This is wrong - only eight per cent of subsidies go to the
20 per cent [of people] on the lowest incomes," he said. "A
well designed subsidy reform with direct assistance for the
poor may be a very well thought out energy policy."
He added that without a move to phase out fossil fuel subsidies,
the world could find itself "locked in" to a path that would
leave it unable to limit global temperature rises to two degrees,
paving the way for temperature rises of up to six degrees
this century.
Even if the world built no more power stations or factories
and used the same number of cars, the world would have already
used up 80 per cent of the emissions allotted for a two degree
rise, he explained.
"Even schoolchildren know a six degree rise will have grave
consequences for our planet - if we don't have a major change
in terms of moving to a sustainable energy system ... by 2017
we will be locked in to a six degree pathway," Birol cautioned.
"The door to a two degrees trajectory may be closing and closing
very soon."
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