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New research, published by the EPA, shows how economic forecasts
can be used to project waste generation and emissions of pollutants
across Ireland.
The ISus (Irish Sustainable Development) Model is
based on the work of a 3-year study by the Economic and Social
Research Institute (ESRI),
funded under the EPA STRIVE research programme.
Speaking about the findings of the research, Dr. Mary Kelly,
Director General, EPA said - “This model, developed by the
ESRI, is very welcome. We are all aware of the use of GDP
and other statistics to measure economic change. These, however,
leave many things unmeasured, including the environment.
"The ISus model provides a link between economic
forecasting and potential environmental impacts. This
enables us to use the expertise of the ESRI - in relation
to economic data - and link this with the environmental data
produced by the EPA. The results will aid policy and decision-makers
to diagnose environmental problems, identify pressure points,
target policy interventions and assess their success.
"For example, projections on the generation of biodegradable
waste - how much and where - could be a very useful tool for
planning the location and required capacity for waste management
infrastructure in the future.”
ISus covers more than 25 potential pollutants -
to air, water and waste - emanating from 20 economic sectors.
Some of the findings from the research include -
- In relation to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions - Ireland
faces a significant challenge in meeting its target for
2020.
- In relation to waste generation - projections from the
model suggest that Ireland will also have great difficulty
meeting EU limits on landfilling of biodegradable municipal
waste.
- In relation to carbon tax - it illustrates the spatial
distribution of households likely to pay the highest tax,
with those in the commuter belts likely to pay most.
- The data show that in the period 1990 - 2006, while the
economy was growing strongly, some emissions (sulphur dioxide,
carbon monoxide and volatile organic compounds) have fallen,
while others (carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion,
dioxins) have increased. ISus is able
to attribute these changes to economic growth, structural
changes in the economy and technological and behavioural
change.
“The EPA is very happy to be working in collaboration with
ESRI on this project and hopes to be able to reap the benefits
of the work in producing forecasts and projections for environmental
impacts based on different scenarios in the future,” added
Dr Kelly.
Download the report - Ireland's Sustainable Development
Model - Click
Here
The findings from the research were presented last week at
a seminar on Environmental Projections and Policy for Ireland
in the Economic and Social Research Institute.
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