China’s economy will surpass that of the United States by
2035 and be twice its size by midcentury, a new report by
a Washington-based research institute concludes.
China’s rapid growth is driven by domestic demand - not exports
- and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into
In the report - 'China’s Economic Rise - Fact and Fiction'
- author Albert Keidel examines China’s likely economic trajectory
and its implications for global commercial, institutional
and military leadership.
Key conclusions of the report include -
- Potential stumbling blocks to sustained Chinese growth
- export concerns, domestic economic instability, inequality
and poverty, pollution, social unrest - or even corruption
and slow political reform - are unlikely to undermine China’s
- China’s financial system, rather than a shortcoming that
compromises growth potential, is one of the strengths of
what the report calls 'China’s money-making machine'
- in part, because of its ability to support the financing
of infrastructure and other public investments necessary
for sustained rapid growth.
- A Chinese economy that eclipses the US by midcentury has
both commercial and potential military implications. China
will be the pre-eminent world commercial influence. China’s
military capabilities are a small fraction of the United
States’ today, so there is time to prepare for a very different
world in fifty years, states the report.
- American policy-makers should take this opportunity to
enact wide-ranging domestic reforms and rethink their concepts
of global order.
Keidel says - "China’s economic performance clearly
is no flash in the pan. Its growth this decade has averaged
more than 10 percent a year and is still going strong in the
first half of 2008. Because its success in recent decades
has not been export-led, but driven by domestic demand, its
rapid growth can continue well into the twenty-first century,
unfettered by world market limitation.
"China’s likely continued success will eventually bring
an end to America’s global economic preeminence, requiring
strategic reassessment by all major economies - especially
the United States, the European Union, Japan and even China
To download the report - 'China’s Economic Rise - Fact
and Fiction' - Click